Software
Analytical Extraction of Conditional Sobol' Indices via Basis Decomposition of Polynomial Chaos Expansions
In uncertainty quantification, evaluating sensitivity measures under specific conditions (i.e., conditional Sobol' indices) is essential for systems with parameterized responses, such as spatial fields or varying operating conditions. Traditional approaches often rely on point-wise modeling, which is computationally expensive and may lack consistency across the parameter space. This paper demonstrates that for a pre-trained global Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) model, the analytical conditional Sobol' indices are inherently embedded within its basis functions. By leveraging the tensor-product property of PCE bases, we reformulate the global expansion into a set of analytical coefficient fields that depend on the conditioning variables. Based on the preservation of orthogonality under conditional probability measures, we derive closed-form expressions for conditional variances and Sobol' indices. This framework bypasses the need for repetitive modeling or additional sampling, transforming conditional sensitivity analysis into a purely algebraic post-processing step. Numerical benchmarks indicate that the proposed method ensures physical coherence and offers superior numerical robustness and computational efficiency compared to conventional point-wise approaches.
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Nonparametric Regression Discontinuity Designs with Survival Outcomes
Schuessler, Maximilian, Sverdrup, Erik, Tibshirani, Robert, Wager, Stefan
Quasi-experimental evaluations are central for generating real-world causal evidence and complementing insights from randomized trials. The regression discontinuity design (RDD) is a quasi-experimental design that can be used to estimate the causal effect of treatments that are assigned based on a running variable crossing a threshold. Such threshold-based rules are ubiquitous in healthcare, where predictive and prognostic biomarkers frequently guide treatment decisions. However, standard RD estimators rely on complete outcome data, an assumption often violated in time-to-event analyses where censoring arises from loss to follow-up. To address this issue, we propose a nonparametric approach that leverages doubly robust censoring corrections and can be paired with existing RD estimators. Our approach can handle multiple survival endpoints, long follow-up times, and covariate-dependent variation in survival and censoring. We discuss the relevance of our approach across multiple areas of applications and demonstrate its usefulness through simulations and the prostate component of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial where our new approach offers several advantages, including higher efficiency and robustness to misspecification. We have also developed an open-source software package, $\texttt{rdsurvival}$, for the $\texttt{R}$ language.
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Sublinear Time Low-Rank Approximation of Distance Matrices
Such distance matrices are commonly computed in software packages and have applications to learning image manifolds, handwriting recognition, and multi-dimensional unfolding, among other things. In an attempt to reduce their description size, we study low rank approximation of such matrices. Our main result is to show that for any underlying distance metric $d$, it is possible to achieve an additive error low rank approximation in sublinear time. We note that it is provably impossible to achieve such a guarantee in sublinear time for arbitrary matrices $\AA$, and our proof exploits special properties of distance matrices. We develop a recursive algorithm based on additive projection-cost preserving sampling.
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Code Metal Raises 125 Million to Rewrite the Defense Industry's Code With AI
The Boston startup uses AI to translate and verify legacy software for defense contractors, arguing modernization can't come at the cost of new bugs. Code Metal, a Boston-based startup that uses AI to write code and translate it into other programming languages, just closed a $125 million Series B funding round from new and existing investors. The news comes just a few months after the startup raised $36 million in series A financing led by Accel. Code Metal is part of a new wave of startups aiming to modernize the tech industry by using AI to generate code and translate it across programming languages. One of the questions that persists about AI-assisted code, though, is whether the output is any good--and what the consequences might be if it's not.
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